29th March - The first step for Brexit

Yesterday’s markets

21st March 2017

  • EUR - Eurogroup Meetings
  • CAD - Wholesale Sales m/m: 3.3%
  • AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Prime Minister Theresa May confirmed yesterday that the UK will trigger Article 50 next Wednesday, the 29th of March, keeping to her promise of action by the end of this month.  This will set in motion a two-year divorce process and launch formal negotiations between the UK and the European Union, in which will pave the way for Britain to leave by March 2019.  As a result of the announcement of the date Article 50 is going to be triggered, the Pound fell 0.4% against the Dollar, and has continued to be on the back foot. 

Now that the date has been set, it is time for the British government to negotiate what terms are to be agreed with the PM to negotiate with the EU bloc. This is set to be an arduous task for Theresa May, in agreeing what can be taken to the negotiation table, as it still remains to be seen as to what the EU will be offering the UK in the divorce, if anything. Although two years is the time frame this could well go beyond this time frame.

Today’s markets

20th March 2017

  • GBP - CPI y/y
  • GBP - BOE Gov Carney Speaks
  • CAD - Core Retail Sales m/m
  • NZD - GDT Price Index 

Today’s focus will be on the inflation figure out from the UK this morning, to see if prices have yet again increased.  January’s figure is currently at 1.8%, the figure for February is anticipated to jump up to 2.1%, which if seen would put further pressure on the Bank of England to maybe step into action. MPC member Kristin Forbes, who dissented last week by voting for a rate increase, could have her views furthered by a higher inflation figure today.