A bad beat
Today's news headlines:
'UK house prices fall for fifth consecutive month'. Prompted by the rising cost of borrowing – average new mortgage rates have reached 3.67% - house prices have fallen for a fifth consecutive month. The price of an average home has dropped from £275,000 to £258,297 or approximately 6% since August 2022. (Financial Times)
'UK braced for biggest strike day since 2011 as Ministers resist pay rises'. Wednesday is Strike Day as over 300,000 Britons take to the streets to protest wage rates and working conditions. This includes 150,000 teachers, 70,000 university lecturers, 100,000 civil servants and 12,500 train drivers. Union leaders contend, and objective evidence supports their assertion, that the government is presenting a false face to the public in an attempt to blame strikes on unions and win a battle of words. (Financial Times)
The US Dollar Index has been trading sideways for the better part of three weeks, while Sterling is under pressure. Brent Crude appears contained below the $87 per barrel 100-day moving average in advance of the OPEC+ cartel meeting. The big news today will be the Federal Reserve Meeting, where the expectation is that the FOMC will raise rates by 25bps to 4.75%. More importantly, the press conference will shed light on the tension between the hawkish policymakers' narrative versus the market's peak inflation pivot prediction.
UK BRC Shop Price Index y/y: 8.0% vs 7.3% last month
CN Caixin Manufacturing PMI: 49.2 vs 49 last month
UK Nationwide HPI m/m: -0.6% vs -0.3% last month
EU Final Manufacturing PMI: 9:00 AM
UK Final Manufacturing PMI: 9:30 AM
EU CPI Flash Estimate y/y: 10:00 AM
US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: 1:15 PM
US ISM Manufacturing PMI: 3:00 PM
US FOMC Statement: 7:00 PM
US Fed Press Conference: 7:30 PM
GBP/USD – 1.2315
GBP/EUR – 1.1330
EUR/USD – 1.0870
USD/CAD – 1.3300
Please contact your Dealer about any upcoming FX requirements you may have, or call +44 (0)20 3465 8200.
*Indicative interbank rates taken on the day of writing. Please speak to your Dealer to find out the current rates available for you.