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A little more cautiously now

Today's news headlines:

'Hunt to unveil "Budget for growth" with billions pledged for business'. 
This afternoon, Chancellor Hunt will announce a reversal of business tax breaks and super-deduction on capex, but will offset that with a raft of new capital investment incentives, a relaxation of visas aimed at tackling labour shortages, and £4bn to expand nursery care to bring parents back to the workforce. 
(Financial Times)

'Rishi Sunak warned against relaxing City of London rules'. 
One very positive outcome of the SVB failure is that it will temper post-Brexit deregulation zeal. Following the perpetual cycle of regulation after a disaster and deregulation once memories have faded – ostensibly to make way for the next disaster – was well underway in the guise of competition. While greater efficiency and clearer rules are excellent aims for regulation, they mustn't come at the expense of stability brought on by a 'markets are self-regulating' delusion. (Financial Times)


Yesterday, Dollar depreciation halted, and US Treasury yields rebounded – after plunging 1% over three days. We've seen a lot of stories in the media about a repricing of interest rate expectations given the SVB failure, but those pronouncements should be taken with a healthy dose of scepticism. Markets react, and often overreact, following a disruptive episode, and yields are no exception to this experience. We are particularly interested to hear about the UK Budget this afternoon!


CN    Industrial Production y/y: 2.4% vs 1.3% last month
CN    Retail Sales y/y: 3.5% vs -1.8% last month
EU    Industrial Production m/m: 10:00 AM
UK    Annual Budget Release: 12:30 PM
US    PPI m/m: 12:30 PM
US    Retail Sales m/m: 12:30 PM
US    Empire State Manufacturing Index: 12:30 PM
NZ    GDP q/q: 9:45 PM

Interbank rates*:

GBP/USD – 1.2145
GBP/EUR – 1.1320
EUR/USD – 1.0730
USD/CAD – 1.3695

Please contact your Dealer about any upcoming FX requirements you may have, or call +44 (0)20 3465 8200. 

*Indicative interbank rates taken on the day of writing. Please speak to your Dealer to find out the current rates available for you.