Balance begins to shift

Today's news headlines:

‘Ukraine upgrades war aims as confidence grows’. Momentum appears to be building for Ukraine on the 76th day of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Ukraine’s Foreign Minister, Dmytro Kuleba, has emphasised the need for a steady supply of weaponry from the west to sustain efforts to recapture parts of the Donbas region and eventually Crimea. Vladimir Putin spoke at the Red Square parade yesterday and didn’t issue a formal declaration of war, opting against mobilising more troops. (Financial Times)

‘UK’s rising cost of living puts brakes on consumer spending’. UK Retail Sales tipped lower in April as costs begin to mount for consumers. The British Retail Consortium found that retail sales fell for the first time since January 2021. Discretionary product sales such as furniture and electricals have fallen as confidence in the UK economy wanes. Both rising inflation and the slowdown in spending are expected to only worsen, with another energy price cap increase expected in October. (Financial Times)


Today

Asian markets followed Wall Street lower overnight as US stocks suffered the worst one-day sell-off since 2020, with the S&P 500 trading below 4,000. European markets have offered some relief to start the day by trading moderately higher. The US Dollar Index opened flat this morning.

Events

BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y (April): -1.7% (est. 3.5%)
Italian Industrial Production m/m: 9:00AM
Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment: 10:00AM
German ZEW Economic Sentiment: 10:00AM
Federal Open Market Committee member John Williams speaks: 12:40PM
German Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel speaks: 3:00PM
FOMC member Christopher Waller speaks: 6:00PM
FOMC member Loretta Mester speaks: 8:00PM

Interbank rates:

GBP/USD – 1.2326
GBP/EUR – 1.1675
EUR/USD – 1.0557
USD/CAD – 1.3004

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