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Blindfolded politics

Today's news headlines:

‘Truss team would shun OBR forecasts for emergency budget’. Frontrunner in the UK Conservative leadership race, Liz Truss, said she will decline economic projections from the Office for Budget Responsibility, an independent fiscal watchdog, before enacting policy to address the cost-of-living crisis. After all, one can’t be accused of acting in bad faith if they were ‘flying blind’. (Financial Times)

‘UK economy shrank more than previously estimated in 2020, says ONS’. Revised Office of National Statistics data points to a historic downturn in UK economic fortunes in 2020, before the period of inflationary pressure added to the problem. Bank of England now forecasts inflation to reach 13% by year-end, which will only worsen the existing crisis. (Financial Times)


Equity indices are all broadly lower overnight while the US Dollar Index surges towards 20-year highs. Both Sterling and Euro are taking a beating, while Brent crude has settled into a region just below its 50-day moving average of around $96 per barrel. The slew of forward-looking data on offer today will provide some much-needed context about the state of business in the developed world.  Overnight, we saw worsening Purchasing Managers’ Index data out of Australia and Japan setting a cautious tone for today’s market open.


Australian flash Manufacturing PMI: 54.5 vs 55.7 last month
Australian flash Services PMI: 49.6 vs 50.9 last month
Japan flash Manufacturing PMI: 51.0 vs 52.1 last month
Bank of Japan Core Consumer Price Index y/y: 1.8% vs 1.6% last month
EU flash Manufacturing PMI: 9:00 AM
EU flash Services PMI: 9:00 AM
UK flash Manufacturing PMI: 9:30 AM
UK flash Services PMI: 9:30 AM
UK CBI Industrial Orders Expectation: 11:00 AM
US flash Manufacturing PMI: 2:45 PM
US flash Services PMI: 2:45 PM
EU Consumer Confidence: 3:00 PM
US Richmond manufacturing Index: 3:00 PM

Interbank rates*:

GBP/USD – 1.1740
GBP/EUR – 1.1840
EUR/USD – 0.9900
GBP/CAD – 1.3040


Please contact your Dealer about any upcoming FX requirements you may have, or call +44 (0)20 3465 8200. 

*Indicative interbank rates taken on the day of writing. Please speak to your Dealer to find out the current rates available for you.