Boom or bust

Today's news headlines: 

‘UK labour market shows strongest rebound in hiring since 2015’. As the UK emerges from the pandemic, signs are showing that the health of the job market is starting to recover. Data gathered by IHS Markit indicates vacancies have started to surge, in addition to more people being hired when compared to December. Thanks to the road map set out by PM Boris Johnson, businesses have been able to work towards a rough timeline which is aiding optimism, with the return to normality lending itself to this jump in hiring. However, with the unemployment rate still at 5% there is still much work to be done to reach pre-pandemic levels. (Financial Times)

‘Jamie Dimon forecasts post-pandemic boom for US economy’. Conditions in the US continue to improve, thanks to its rapid vaccination rates which are on track to return the country to some sort of normality this year. With the large swaths of both fiscal and monetary stimulus deployed to combat the pandemic, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has emphasised the likelihood of a strong recovery in the latter half of the year. The bank estimates that retail consumers have amassed over $2tn in savings while large capitalisation companies have accumulated just over $3tn. Such large cash reserves look ripe to kick start the economy, coupled with the stimulus already in the market and these inflation fears begin to look justified.

Today's events, rates, and data 

  • The FTSE 100 climbed 0.91% yesterday while the FTSE 250 also gained modestly up 0.76%. These gains were mainly driven by a sell-off in the Pound, aiding exporters, as Cable fell 0.57% while also weakening 0.63% against the Euro. Dollar strength has been notable in the first quarter of 2021, with the US Dollar Index up 3.6% so far this year.

Today's events

Japan Consumer Confidence: 36.1 vs 33.8 last month
German Factory Orders m/m: 1.2% vs 0.8% last month
UK Construction PMI: 9:30am
Eurozone PPI m/m: 10:00am
ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts: 12:30pm
US Unemployment Claims: 1:30pm
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell Speaks: 5:00pm

Interbank rates

GBP/USD: 1.3764
GBP/EUR: 1.1591
EUR/USD: 1.1871
USD/CAD: 1.2606
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