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Today's news headlines:
'UK worker shortfall due to Brexit curbs estimated at 330,000'. Leading researchers and think tanks have estimated that the post-Brexit UK labour market is currently facing a deficit of over 300,000 workers due to the free movement of labour ending within the European Union. Since exiting the EU in 2020, an estimated 460,000 EU workers have left Britain, while only 130,000 have relocated to the UK to work. This suggests that the points-based immigration system that grants skilled workers earning more than £25,600 per year a UK work visa is not liberal enough to offset the exodus of overseas labour. (Financial Times)
'China's economy expands 3% in 2022 as zero-Covid policies hit growth'. Last year, the world's second-largest economy missed its five-and-a-half percent growth target and saw a GDP increase of just three percent. This is the smallest full-year expansion in nearly half a century, excluding the beginning of the pandemic in 2020. Several key provinces and cities in China have released early growth targets for 2023, most of which lie around the five percent mark. It's widely expected that the Chinese economy will bounce back this year since the abandoning of the government's longstanding zero-Covid policy, which stunted labour and growth for almost three years. However, additional underlying concerns threaten the growth of the Chinese economy in 2023, such as the property crisis dragging house prices down, dampening exports as the world economy slows, and China's population decline for the first time in 60 years. (Financial Times)
China's growth data this morning is a reminder to investors that despite European equities' positive start to the year and the UK's surprising GDP figure last week, EU and US recessions are still a possibility. A lot of the attention this morning will likely be on the release of Germany's ZEW survey of economic sentiment for January, which is expected to show a less pessimistic view by investors and analysts on the German economy, which happens to be the largest net contributor to the EU budget.
Chinese GDP q/y: 2.9% vs 3.9% previously
German final CPI m/m: -0.8% vs -0.8% previously
UK Claimant Count Change: 19.7K vs 30.5K previously
UK Unemployment Rate: 3.7% vs 3.7% previously
Canadian CPI m/m: 1:30PM
US Empire State Manufacturing Index: 1:30PM
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