Deal or no deal

Today’s news headlines:

‘UK draws up plans to rival Singapore with post-Brexit shipping regime’. The UK government is looking at revamping its shipping tax and regulation regime in order to complete with Singapore in the post-Brexit era. According to government calculations, the plan could be worth £3.7bn over three years and create 2,500 high quality jobs in the sector. (Financial Times)

‘Hopes rise for Brexit trade deal as MPs put on standby’. MPs have been put on standby for an extended House of Commons meeting next week, which signals progress on a Brexit trade deal breakthrough pre-Christmas. Unfortunately, this is where the optimism ends as both EU and UK officials reaffirmed that they remain far apart on several key issues. Work is still continuing on the so called ‘level playing field’ concept, which aims to establish a recourse mechanism in order to facilitate a flexible but competitive regulatory framework in either jurisdiction. (Financial Times)

Today's events, rates, and data 

  • Remarkably, the Pound has started on a stronger footing this week and the Index has rallied towards the local high on this morning's Brexit rumours. Signs of US stimulus progress is driving the trade-weighted Dollar lower, after nearly two weeks of side-ways movement. Today’s PMI data is forward looking and timely, so it should provide a fresh look at sentiment heading into the year end. The US Federal Reserve press conference this evening is not expected to signal policy changes, but rather to continue to sound an economic warning about the need for fiscal stimulus.

Today's events

UK CPI y/y: 0.3% vs 0.7% last month
UK Core CPI y/y: 1.1% vs 1.5% last month
UK PPI Input m/m: 0.2% vs 0.2% last month
EU French Services PMI: 49.2 vs 38.8 last month
EU French Manufacturing PMI: 51.1 vs 49.6 last month
EU German Services PMI
EU German Manufacturing PMI
EU Services PMI: 9:00am
EU Manufacturing PMI: 9:00am
UK Services PMI: 9:30am
UK Manufacturing PMI: 9:30am
CA CPI m/m: 1:30pm
US Retail Sales m/m: 1:30pm
US Services PMI: 2:45pm
US Manufacturing PMI: 2:45pm
US FOMC Press Conference: 7:00pm

Interbank rates

GBP/USD: 1.3320
GBP/EUR: 1.0975
EUR/USD: 1.2135
USD/CAD: 1.2765

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