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Elementary, dear Martin

Today’s news headlines:

‘Irish PM warns Boris Johnson over plans to recast Brexit deal’. Irish PM Micheál Martin met with Boris Johnson to express his concern and disagreement with plans to unpick the exit treaty signed last year. He highlighted the damage to both the UK’s credibility and the potential to be a source of destabilisation to Northern Ireland. Perhaps the most interesting thing to come out of this meeting, is that Martin said he was confident that the UK PM understood the full array of issues, despite pretensions to the contrary. (Financial Times)

‘US whistleblower alleges censorship of Russian threat reports’. A US Homeland Security official, Brian Murphy, has alleged that several persons in his department attempted to change intelligence estimates dealing with Russian election interference. Chad Wolf, Secretary of Homeland Security, asked Murphy to cease providing intelligence assessments on the threat of Russian interference and instead start reporting on China and Tehran. Adam Schiff, the Democratic Chairman of the House of Representatives, has asked Murphy to come before his committee on intelligence to testify. (Financial Times)

Today's events, rates, and data 

  • A dual rebound in USD and tech stocks faltered overnight, amid continued concerns with equity valuations. We saw some positive jobs data out of the US overnight, while UK house price data surprised to the upside this morning, neither have had a meaningful impact to FX prices. The focus today is on the European Central Bank this afternoon, where trading is likely to become more volatile.

Today's events

UK RICS House Price Balance: 44% vs 13% last month
JP  Core Machinery Orders m/m: 6.3% vs -7.6% last month
EU  French Industrial Production: 3.8% vs 12.7% last month           
EU  Italian Industrial Production: 9:00 AM
EU  ECB Interest rate decision: 12:45 PM
EU  ECB Press Conference: 1:30 PM
US  Unemployment Claims: 1:30 PM
US  PPI m/m: 1:30 PM
CA  Bank of Canada Gov Macklem speaks: 5:30 PM

Interbank rates:

GBP/USD – 1.3010
GBP/EUR – 1.1000
EUR/USD – 1.1825
USD/CAD – 1.3150