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Fed policymakers weigh 100 basis-point move

Today's news headlines:

‘Bullard’s thumbs-down to mega hike shows Fed concern on curve’. One of the most hawkish Federal Reserve officials, James Bullard, has played down talk of a 100 basis-point move by the Fed at this month’s meeting despite US inflation hitting 9.1% in June. Reining in expectations appears to be the main driver; the danger of a three-month/ten-year yield curve inversion on treasuries could be a possibility if the central bank moves too aggressively. (Bloomberg)

‘UK Conservatives upend treasury orthodoxy in race for leadership’. Tory candidates have been voicing their opinions on ways to shake up economic policy as the race to be Prime Minister heats up. Penny Mordaunt has advocated for breaking up the Treasury and placing control of major decisions on economic growth in the PM's remit. Liz Truss has suggested that the debt amassed during the pandemic should be financed by more borrowing to allow for tax cuts as Britons battle with a cost-of-living crisis. (Bloomberg)


The US Dollar Index has opened flat this morning following a move lower in Asian shares overnight. European stocks are mostly higher in early trade, while US equities look set for declines. Oil remains just off $100 per barrel while Sovereign debt is facing demand as yields move lower.


Chinese GDP y/y (Q2): 0.4% (est. 1.2%)
Chinese Retail Sales y/y (June): 3.1% (est. 0.3%)
US Retail and Core Retail Sales m/m (June): 1:30PM
US Empire State Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (July): 1:30PM
Federal Open Market Committee member James Bullard speaks: 2:00PM
US preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (July): 3:00PM

Interbank rates:

GBP/USD – 1.1842
GBP/EUR – 1.1804
EUR/USD – 1.0033
USD/CAD – 1.3107

The markets are moving. To speak to our team, please call +44 (0)20 3465 8200.