Geopolitics takes centre stage

Today's news headlines: 

‘Biden urges Xi not to allow competition to ‘veer into conflict’’. President Biden and Premier Xi met virtually for the first time during this presidency in an attempt to stabilise relationships and create a platform for constructive discussion of issues. Chinese military build-up, repression of the Uyghurs, and Taiwan were discussed, but little progress was made. (Financial Times)

‘Investors lulled into ‘dreamland’ by central banks, warns Bill Gross’. Bill Gross, a respected figure in the investing world, has gone on record to say that central bank stimulus and ultra-loose policy have led the investing public down a garden path into fantasy land. He likely means that these central bank measures, which were initially post-crisis rescue tactics, have pushed asset prices to unsupportable levels. He warns that soon this will all upend. (Financial Times)


Despite some good Chinese Industrial Production and Retails Sales data early in yesterday’s trading session, the market is very apprehensive about the housing crisis in China. The overarching dampening effect could be described as geopolitical since Russia and the US seem to be squaring off over Ukraine as well. The focus today is on the various central bankers speaking this afternoon.


UK Average Earnings Index 3m/y: 5.8% vs 7.2% last month
UK Claimant Count Change: -14.9k vs -51.1k last month
UK Unemployment Rate: 4.3% vs 4.5% last month
US Core Retail Sales m/m: 1:30PM
US Retail Sales m/m: 1:30PM
US Industrial Production m/m: 2:15PM
European Central Bank President Lagarde speaks: 4:15PM
Bank of Canada Governing Council member Schembri speaks: 5:00PM
Federal Open Market Committee member Barkin speaks: 5:00PM
FOMC member Bostic speaks: 5:00PM
FOMC member Daly speaks: 5:00PM

Interbank rates:

GBP/USD – 1.3450
GBP/EUR – 1.1820
EUR/USD – 1.1370
USD/CAD – 1.2520

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