Headwinds to the recovery

Today's news headlines: 

‘Biggest foreign-worker exodus since WWII adds to Britain’s woes’. Foreign-born workers are leaving the UK at an alarming rate, presenting a new challenge to the UK’s economy, which is already under fire because of Brexit and Coronavirus. Jonathan Portes, economics professor at Kings College London, estimates that well over one million foreign workers may have already left, particularly in London, and the risk they will not return causes permanent problems for output, growth and tax revenues. Longer term, it could also exacerbate the demographic problem the UK shares with countries like German and Japan around how to support a rapidly aging population. (Bloomberg)

‘ECB signals rising concern about Eurozone bond market sell-off’. The European Central Bank will need to increase the rate of its asset purchases to preserve favourable financing conditions over the pandemic period. The recent sell-off in Eurozone sovereign debt markets has caused borrowing costs for governments, companies and households to rise. However, the ECB has pledged to ensure an environment that encourages spending and investment, which would help the Eurozone economy to recover from the pandemic. (Financial Times)

Today's events, rates, and data 

  • A massive sell-off in the global bond market shook markets in the overnight trading session, with implications on equities and currencies. Investors are betting on a sharper than expected rebound for the global economy, causing an acceleration in inflation–reducing the value of holding debt–which might cause a pullback in monetary support. The US Dollar index rebounded as equities came off, which is a trend that might continue into today, as futures point lower.

Today's events

German Import Prices: 1.9% vs 0.6% previously
French Consumer Spending: -4.6% vs 22.4% previously
French Prelim CPI: -0.1% vs 0.2% previously
French Prelim GDP: -1.4% vs -1.3% previously
MPC Member Ramsden Speaks: 12.30pm
US Core PCE Price Index: 1.30pm
US Chicago PMI: 2.45pm

Interbank rates

GBP/USD: 1.3920
GBP/EUR: 1.1470
EUR/USD: 1.2140
USD/CAD: 1.2620