Hold your horses

Today's news headlines: 

‘Bank of England backs off from immediate interest rate rise’. The Bank of England shied away from an immediate rise in headline interest rates yesterday, despite predictions that inflation would reach 5% next spring. The Monetary Policy Committee conceded that interest rates would need to rise over the coming months but surprised markets that had priced in a 15bps rise. Sterling fell to below 1.35 against the US Dollar for the first time since early October in response. The majority of Monetary Policy Committee members believed that higher inflation would prove transitory and worried about the costs of a small increase in interest rates. (Financial Times)

‘U.K. Spends $1.4 Billion on Brexit Border But Trade Still Slumps’. Despite huge investment in smoothing the passage of goods over the post-Brexit border, a fall in trade between the UK and European Union hasn't been prevented. Trade fell by 15% in the second quarter of this year as businesses had to grapple with new red tape, including additional forms and having to hire customs agents for additional processes. Since quitting the EU in January last year, Britain has yet to finalise any new trade deals with non-bloc member countries. (Bloomberg)


Today

Yesterday and overnight, global stocks paused their recent rally after the Bank of England’s surprise decision to hold rates. The US Dollar and Treasuries rose while crude oil advanced after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries Plus (OPEC+) rebuffed Joe Biden’s plea for a large increase in output.

Events

German Industrial Production m/m: -1.1% vs -3.5% previously
French Industrial Production m/m: -1.3% vs 1.0% previously
MPC member Ramsden speaks: 12:15PM
US Non-Farm Payrolls: 12:30PM
US Unemployment Rate: 12:30PM
US Average Hourly Earnings: 12:30PM
Canada Employment Change: 12:30PM
Canada Unemployment Rate: 12:30PM
MPC member Tenreyro speaks: 1:00PM


Interbank rates:

GBP/USD – 1.3470
GBP/EUR – 1.1655
EUR/USD – 1.1555
USD/CAD – 1.2460

The markets are moving. To speak to our team, please call +44 (0)20 3465 8200.