Increasing friction

Today’s news headlines:

‘Tories must choose between Boris Johnson and the Union’. The Prime Minister’s latest trip to Scotland highlighted the challenge Johnson has on his hands of trying to keep Scotland in the union of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. First Minister of Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon, expressed outrage that the trip breached coronavirus restrictions, holding up his presence as evidence of the political chasm that exists between Westminster and Edinburgh. Johnson’s opposition to the SNP’s demand for a second referendum are clear, but a big win for Sturgeon in the May elections could render this stance politically unsustainable (Financial Times).

‘Mario Drahgi’s search for support leaves Matteo Salvini with a painful choice’. Having been thrust into Italy’s political crisis, Mario Draghi now has the challenge of convincing enough of the countries parties to back him on a project that will attempt to shape Italy’s recovery from the pandemic. Five Star Movement have already said they will not back Draghi, a blow from the largest party in the current Italian parliament. However, a recent sharp fall in the popularity of the Movement, with some MP’s crossing party lines and supporting Draghi, many Five Star lawmakers fear a snap election may be ahead (Financial Times).

Today's events, rates, and data 

  • The US vaccination campaign is gathering steam and boosting the prospects of an earlier economic recovery for the Dollar. The Euro lost 0.15% overnight, hitting a two-month low. No change is expected out of the Bank of England today, although they are expected to release their negative rate consultation which leaves room for surprises.

Today's events

UK Construction PMI: 53.0 vs 54.6 last month
EU Retail Sales m/m: 2.4% vs -6.1% last month
BoE Asset Purchasing: 12:00pm
MPC Official Bank Rate Votes: 12:00pm
Official Bank Rate: 12:00pm
US Employment Claims: 1:30pm
AUD Governor Lowe Speaks: 10:30pm

Interbank rates

GBP/USD: 1.3596
GBP/EUR: 1.1318
EUR/USD: 1.2007
USD/CAD: 1.2794