Mind the gap
Today's news headlines:
‘UK wages jump at strongest pace on record outside pandemic’. Average earnings in the three months through October were 6.1% higher than a year ago, representing the biggest jump in pay since records began in 2001, excluding the height of the pandemic. The wage boost reflects the ongoing labour shortages in the UK despite a cost-of-living crisis that is set to plunge Britain into a long recession throughout 2023. The data also showed the disparity between private and public sector workers, of which many are currently on strike. Public sector pay rose just 2.7% over the same period compared to 6.9% for the private sector. Focus is now on the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, which meets on Thursday, with a tighter labour market more likely to fuel inflation in the coming months. (Bloomberg)
‘China to set economic plans amid a shift from Covid Zero to growth’. The prospect of China abandoning its Covid Zero policy should be a positive move for growth in the country. However, with the economy already in a fragile state and growth slowing, there will likely need to be a further loosening of monetary policy, while the flailing property sector should get more support from Xi’s government. We will see what is in the pipeline to boost growth this week as the annual economic conference begins on Thursday, with new targets to be announced at the end of the three-day meeting. (Bloomberg)
G-10 FX was little changed overnight as investors waited for today’s US CPI print to place new bets on the path of monetary policy in 2023. Equities in Asia and European futures advanced ahead of the data print. Risk appetite will likely be boosted if US CPI lowers a meaningful amount below last month’s read of 7.7%.
UK Claimant Count: 30.5K vs -6.4K previously
UK Average Earnings Index 3m/y: 6.1% vs 6.0% previously
UK Unemployment Rate: 3.7% vs 3.6% previously
German ZEW Economic Sentiment: 10.00AM
BoE Gov Bailey speaks: 11.00AM
US CPI and Core CPI: 1.30PM
AUS RBA Gov Lowe speaks: 10.30PM
Please contact your Dealer about any upcoming FX requirements you may have, or call +44 (0)20 3465 8200.
*Indicative interbank rates taken on the day of writing. Please speak to your Dealer to find out the current rates available for you.