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Russian aggression

Today's news headlines: 

‘Biden warns Russia is set to invade Ukraine within days’. Russian forces have allegedly shelled various locations within Ukraine, including a kindergarten, in what is described as ‘false flag’ operations, which attempt to disguise the source of the provocation. Western diplomats have disputed Russian claims that it has withdrawn troops from the border, which their Russian counterparts are using as a pretext for escalation. The sides are still attempting a summit, provided Russian forces have not invaded. (Financial Times)

‘ECB chief economist shifts inflation stance to signal policy “normalisation”’. Head European Central Bank Economist Philip Lane has changed his tune and now believes inflation in the EU is unlikely to fall below 2%. This pronouncement is likely to signal upcoming changes in ECB monetary policy towards a faster normalisation, where rates return to 0% or higher and asset purchases are unwound. (Financial Times)


Ukrainian developments have caused a pullback in equities overnight, but announcements of upcoming talks have rallied futures. The trade-weighted US Dollar is trending lower and currently sits at the 100-day moving average. There’s a quiet data calendar today to close the week; the Federal Open Market Committee speakers are likely to contribute to the ongoing acceleration in policy normalisation at the Federal Reserve.


UK Retail Sales m/m: 1.9% vs -4.0% last month
French final Consumer Price Index m/m: 0.3% vs 0.3% last month
Euro Area Current Account: 9:00AM
Canadian Core Retail Sales m/m: 1:30PM
Canadian Retail Sales m/m: 1:30PM
Euro Area Consumer Confidence: 3:00PM
US Existing Home Sales: 3:00PM
FOMC member Christopher Waller speaks: 3:45PM
FOMC member John Williams speaks: 4:00PM
FOMC member Lael Brainard speaks: 6:30PM

Interbank rates:

GBP/USD – 1.3630
GBP/EUR – 1.1985
EUR/USD – 1.1370
USD/CAD – 1.2675

The markets are moving. To speak to our team, please call +44 (0)20 3465 8200.