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Something doesn't add up

Today’s news headlines:

‘Trump’s Northern Ireland envoy issues border warning’. Former White House Chief of Staff and senior Republican operative Mick Mulvaney has come out criticising the UK's Internal Market Bill, warning of the potential for unintentional walls between Northern Ireland and the UK. It seems virtually every party is opposed to the legislation and everyone, including the Johnson administration, agree that the Good Friday Agreement must remain unencumbered. Logically, the UK administration’s support for the bill doesn’t seem to make sense and suggests a different motive. (Financial Times)

‘Second national lockdown proposed by UK scientific advisers’. Government Scientific advisors have recommended that the UK enter a second two-week lockdown. Just at a time when Boris Johnson is stressing a return to work with every breath, this comes as a blow to his plans. The advice has, however, come with some strategic implementation ideas that are aligned to the government's agenda.  The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) and the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M) have posited a one-week extension to October's school half-term, which would have little impact on newly reopened schools. (Financial Times)

Today's events, rates, and data 

  • Very small moves over this past week have resulted in the Dollar Index being at the bottom of its range, the trade-weighted Pound restrained at the 100-day moving average, and the Euro in a narrow range-trade. Yesterday, the Bank of England reported on technical discussions on negative interest rate policy, that were taken out of context and caused a short-term Pound sell-off, but that has largely unwound now. There is relatively little data heading into the weekend, so the focus remains, at least domestically, on the potential for a new lockdown.  

Today's events

UK Retail Sales m/m: 0.8% vs 3.7% last month
CA  Core Retail Sales m/m: 12:30 PM
US  University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: 2:00 PM     

Interbank rates:

GBP/USD – 1.2980
GBP/EUR – 1.0950
EUR/USD – 1.1850
USD/CAD – 1.3155