Today's news headlines:

‘Andrew Bailey raises prospect of increased UK bank deposit protection’.
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey hinted at a potential increase in deposit insurance which is currently set at £85k and rejected ideas that in practice you can have insured vs uninsured deposits. He also reassured the market by highlighting that he doesn’t believe we are currently in any crisis so the inflation-fighting must continue untrammeled. (Financial Times)

‘UK’s goods exports lowest in G7 following Brexit, study finds’.
Once again Britain is bottom of another G7 ranking, this time for goods exports. Brexit is at least partly to blame for this trading performance, not least because there have been discontinuities in trade reporting since the UK left the bloc in 2021. That said, it seems that the data such as it is does point to exceptionally bad performance which according to the OBR is set to continue for the next two years. (Financial Times)

Today

Overnight, FOMC meeting minutes from the Fed showed that the panel believes a recession in 2023 is about 50/50. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey voiced a hawkish view on monetary policy, saying that the MPC will not be dissuaded from the inflation battle by stability concerns. It appears that Chancellor Hunt’s optimistic forecast for growth may not be too far off the mark; UK GDP m/m came out this morning at a flat 0%, beating market expectations. However, the stagnation in UK Industrial Production and Manufacturing index portends weaker readings in the coming months.

Events

UK RICS House Price Balance: -43% vs -47% last month
AU Employment Change: 53k vs 63.6k last month
UK GDP m/m: 0% vs 0.4% last month
UK Construction Output m/m: 2.4% vs -1.7% last month
UK Industrial Production m/m: -0.2% vs -0.5% last month
UK Manufacturing Production m/m: 0.0% vs -0.1% last month
UK BOE Credit Conditions Survey: 9:30 AM
EU Industrial Production m/m: 10:00 AM
US PPI m/m: 1:30 PM
US Unemployment Claims: 1:30 PM
CA BOC Gov Macklem Speaks: 2:00 PM
UK MPC Member Pill Speaks: 2:00 PM
EU German Bundesbank President Nagel Speaks: 7:30 PM

Interbank rates*:

GBP/USD – 1.2500
GBP/EUR – 1.1365
EUR/USD – 1.1000
USD/CAD – 1.3405

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*Indicative interbank rates taken on the day of writing. Please speak to your Dealer to find out the current rates available for you.