The last mile

Today’s news headlines:

‘UK trade talks with EU on knife edge, says Irish premier’. This morning, Michel Barnier will brief the 27 EU member states on the progress of talks, which hope to be concluded early this week. Irish PM, Micheál Martin, said he believes the talks are '50-50' at this stage, echoing the ‘too close to call’ statements from last week. While the goalpost has moved throughout the year, it seems the end is nigh. However, it is not yet clear as to whether enough common ground has been achieved to prevent mass disruptions in January. (Financial Times)

‘New US stimulus bill could come as early as Monday’. Last week, a bipartisan group of US Senators brought forward a $908bn Covid stimulus package intended to shore up small business, local government, and unemployment support. However, there are concerns among the different parties about the composition of the deal. Bernie Sanders is opposed to bailing out corporations who did not support employees throughout the pandemic, while many Republicans are against direct unemployment payments. Democrat Mark Warner, who leads the group, said although we are likely to experience a few days of drama, the deal will ultimately get done. (Financial Times)

Today's events, rates, and data 

  • This morning, the tone of the past several weeks seems to be changing, as risk assets seemingly take a breather. The Dollar is up this morning, while the Euro holds steady. The Pound has experienced some volatility over the past few days, as trade talks enter the latest crunch period and starts the week on the back foot. Oil has once again approached a $50 per barrel high on Friday but has lacked the momentum to break higher. With a light data calendar in the early part of this week, focus remains on Brexit negotiations and US stimulus talks.

Today's events

EU German Industrial Production m/m: 3.2% vs 2.3% last month
UK Halifax HPI m/m: 8:30am
EU Sentix Investor Confidence: 9:30am

Interbank rates

GBP/USD: 1.3295
GBP/EUR: 1.0980
EUR/USD: 1.2100
USD/CAD: 1.2800

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