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Three Fed hikes ‘a good baseline’

Today's news headlines: 

‘Fed’s Waller says three 2022 rate hikes ‘still a good baseline’’. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller has said that three interest rate increases would be a ‘good baseline’ for policy action in the US this year. Waller added that the number of hikes would be dependent upon inflation; if inflation slows, rate hikes could pause at less than three, while if inflation continues to be high, up to five rate hikes could be used. (Bloomberg)

‘UK economy grew beyond pre-pandemic size before Omicron hit’. Data released this morning suggests UK Gross Domestic Product in November reached levels not seen since February 2020, before the Coronavirus pandemic shut down the global economy. UK GDP grew 0.9% from October to November 2021, beating estimates of 0.4% and taking the size of the UK economy back to pre-pandemic levels. However, this was before the Omicron variant rippled through the UK, and analysts expect it to be reversed in December’s figures. (Financial Times)


US and European futures followed Asian stocks lower overnight following comments from the Fed that they could aggressively hike rates should inflation remain high. Treasury yields ticked higher, and oil prices look set to finish the week higher for the fourth consecutive week.


UK Industrial Production MoM (Nov): 1.0% (est. 0.2%)
UK Manufacturing Production MoM (Nov): 1.1% (est. 0.2%)
UK GDP MoM (Nov): 0.9% (est. 0.4%)
US Retail Sales (Dec): 1:30PM
US Industrial Production (Dec): 2:15PM
US University of Michigan Sentiment Surveys (Jan): 3:00PM

Interbank rates:

GBP/USD – 1.3730
GBP/EUR – 1.1970
EUR/USD – 1.1470
USD/CAD – 1.2487

The markets are moving. To speak to our team, please call +44 (0)20 3465 8200.