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UK slippage

Today's news headlines:

'IMF forecasts UK recession despite other leading economies growing'. The International Monetary Fund's most recent forecasts show that the UK is the only major advanced economy likely to enter a recession this year, shrinking by half a percent between the final quarters of 2022 and 2023. Primary factors for this include Britain's labour shortages, as people are more reluctant to return to work in the wake of the pandemic and Brexit than in other economies, as well as the UK's rising mortgage prices as the Bank of England continues to hike its interest rates. The fund also predicts that China's reopening will help it achieve 5.9% growth in 2023, in line with many provinces' growth targets for the year, and even Russian GDP is forecasted to grow by a percent. (Financial Times)

'Washington halts licenses for US companies to export to Huawei'. In the latest attempt by the US government to curb the Shenzhen-based telecom giant, the Biden Administration has ceased providing licenses to any group exporting American technology to Huawei. President Joe Biden has taken an aggressive stance on cutting-edge technology in China since taking office in 2021; he imposed several restrictions in October on US companies providing semiconductors and chipmaking equipment to Chinese groups that Washington believes posed a risk to US national security. Huawei dismisses any allegations of espionage involvement (Financial Times)


Hotter-than-expected French inflation data this morning has started the day with some temporary Sterling and Euro weakness against the Dollar; however, markets tend to trade cautiously in the face of a heavy central bank week. This afternoon, consumer confidence data will be watched closely, but nothing will likely stop the expected downshift by the Federal Reserve to 25 basis points tomorrow. Meanwhile, the Fed's UK and European counterparts are forecasted to push on with big half-percentage point hikes this week, with more planned for future meetings. 


German Retail Sales m/m: -5.3% vs 1.9% previously
French Prelim CPI m/m: 0.4% vs -0.1% previously
Canadian GDP m/m: 1:30PM
US Conference Bond Consumer Confidence: 3:00PM
New Zealand Unemployment Rate: 9:45PM

Interbank rates*:

GBP/USD: 1.2325
GBP/EUR: 1.1385
EUR/USD: 1.0825
USD/CAD: 1.3430

Please contact your Dealer about any upcoming FX requirements you may have, or call +44 (0)20 3465 8200. 

*Indicative interbank rates taken on the day of writing. Please speak to your Dealer to find out the current rates available for you.