Unbalanced

Today’s news headlines:

‘Early voting surge points to huge turnout in US election’. As of Monday evening, in excess of 63 million Americans had already voted, which is four million more than all votes cast in 2016. Trump's mixed message, often questioning the legitimacy of mail-in voting, has given the Democrats an early lead. However, it’s not clear whether this will continue as we approach election day. (Financial Times)

‘US Senate confirms Donald Trump’s nominee to Supreme Court’. Amy Coney Barrett has been confirmed as a Supreme Court Justice, tilting the balance of court views further towards a conservative 6-3 split. This will be crucial for contentious issues like abortion and Obama’s Affordable Care Act. It marks a milestone for conservatives, who have been trying to swing the court for decades. (Financial Times)

Today's events, rates, and data 

  • With the US stimulus talks fizzling out, the lame duck session is likely to be grim as well. In Europe, leaders are trying to figure out a way not to go into lockdown, despite record infection rates and rising hospitalisations. From a market perspective, the focus seems to be on earning reports which show an uptick in the banking sector and may herald a return of dividend payments, just as dramatic job cuts are imminent. It was a quiet data day yesterday, but German Business Climate Surveys have seemingly plateaued to near pre-Covid ranges, in line with last weeks rise in German Manufacturing PMI. Today, we are watching out for the US Durable Goods Orders and Consumer Confidence figures.

Today's events

JP BoJ Core CPI y/y:  -0.1% vs 0% last month
EU Spanish Unemployment Rate: 9:00am
UK CBI Realised Sales: 12:00pm
US Durable Goods Orders m/m: 1:30pm
US Home Price Index m/m: 2:00pm
US CB Consumer Confidence: 3:00pm
US Richmond Manufacturing Index: 3:00pm

Interbank rates:

GBP/USD – 1.3000
GBP/EUR – 1.1015
EUR/USD – 1.1800
USD/CAD – 1.3190