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Vying for the top prize

Today's news headlines:

‘Talk of Socialism Adds Spice to Abrasive UK Leaders’ Debate’. Last night’s second debate in the Tory leadership race identified some clear dividing lines on how the candidates would tackle the economy. Rishi Sunak came under fire for ‘choking off growth’ in the UK by raising taxes and allowing the £17bn of fraud that resulted from the Treasury’s Covid loan program. Meanwhile, Sunak accused his closest rivals, Penny Mordaunt and Liz Truss, of ‘socialism’ amid their plans to cut taxes and increase borrowing. Truss and Kemi Badenoch both took aim at the Bank of England for failing to deliver on its mandate of low inflation, while Sunak defended the BoE’s record for outperforming other major developed economies. (Bloomberg)

‘The ECB Case for a Half-Point Rate Hike Just Won’t Go Away’. Despite signalling a quarter-point increase for this week’s meeting, European Central Bank officials might still consider beginning policy normalisation with a larger rate hike. A more forceful move could lend the ECB credibility in financial markets by indicating its commitment to tackling surging inflation and the Euro’s dip below parity against the US Dollar. Most economists have officials behind the curve, with the Federal Reserve potentially set to take its policy action to 250bps of hikes by the end of next week. With the next ECB meeting seven weeks away, it might be safer to act now. (Bloomberg)


US and European equity futures rose overnight as markets scaled back the magnitude of Federal Reserve policy action in the coming months. This came as data released last week showed a drop in long-term US inflation expectations, despite the outlook remaining troubling for many investors.


UK Rightmove House Price Index: 0.4% vs 0.3% previously
UK Monetary Policy Committee member Michael Saunders speaks: 10:00AM
US NAHB Housing Market Index: 3:00PM

Interbank rates:

GBP/USD – 1.1925
GBP/EUR – 1.1765
EUR/USD – 1.0140
USD/CAD – 1.2985

The markets are moving. To speak to our team, please call +44 (0)20 3465 8200.