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Begin the taper

Today's news headlines: 

‘Johnson brushes off Tory rebels to pass health and social care bill.’ Last night, UK Parliament passed Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s plan to raise £12bn extra in taxes a year by a comfortable majority. The result of the vote—319 to 248—was only made tighter by a number of Tory abstentions, with one rebel warning that the cash would go into a ‘bottomless pit’. Labour also voted against the plan; party leader Keir Starmer commented that the increase in national insurance contributions fell disproportionately on working people. Johnson’s plan marks Britain's highest tax burden as a share of Gross Domestic Product since the 1950s. (Financial Times)

‘Top Fed official pushes for quick ‘taper’ despite weak US jobs growth.’ St Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard has suggested the Federal Reserve should plough ahead with its plan to wind down its pandemic stimulus despite recent weaker jobs data. With unemployment falling and plenty of demand for workers, the Fed is closer to achieving part of their mandate of full employment—while it’s previously signalled a tolerance in letting inflation go above 2% for a short period of time. (Financial Times)


Stocks begin the day on a softer note with declines in US and European equity futures, while the risk-off move has led to a small rise in the Dollar and US treasuries. All eyes turn to the European Central Bank today, which is expected to start signalling the tapering of quantitative easing throughout next year. The ECB are also likely to hike near-term forecasts for inflation and growth.


German Trade Balance: 17.9B vs 13.6B previously
European Central Bank monetary policy statement: 12:45PM
ECB Main Refinancing Rate: 12:45PM
ECB press conference: 1:30PM
US Initial Jobless Claims: 1:30PM

Interbank rates:

GBP/USD - 1.3775
GBP/EUR - 1.1650
EUR/USD - 1.1820
USD/CAD - 1.2725

The markets are moving. To speak to our team, please call +44 (0)20 3465 8200.