The Bank of England dominated yesterday’s headlines as the MPC kept their key interest rate at record lows of 0.25% and the bond buying programme constant at 435B. The BoE indicated that there is still a possibility of another rate cut this year as they assess the effects of the surprise Brexit vote. The nine MPC members unanimously voted 9-0 in favour of rates to remain at record lows. Although the recent economic data has been “slightly to the upside” according to the central bank, the committee said their view of the “contours of the economic outlook” hadn’t changed.
Across the pond, the US released a raft of high tier data. US PPI, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Retail Sales were all published yesterday afternoon. Sales at US retailers fell further than expected, indicating a pause in the recent consumer spending strength, that bolstered economic growth in the States. Retail Sales posted a six-month low of -0.3%. Simultaneously, the US released its PPI figure (Producer Price Index) which also failed to meet economists’ consensus, registering at 0.0%. The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index exceeded forecasts posting a bullish 12.8 reading.
US CPI data will be the main release to focus on today. Headline inflation in the US has been hovering in and around 1 percent year on year for most of 2016, suppressed by pressure from fuel prices. Despite this, Core inflation has been at the target level of 2.2 percent year-on-year. We can expect to see both these trends continue in August with the headline rate mobbing up to 1 percent and core moving to 2.3 percent.