Brexit divorce bill off the table without a trade deal

Yesterday’s markets

12th December 2017

  • EUR - Italian Retail Sales m/m
  • USD - JOLTS Job Openings
  • USD - 10-y Bond Auction

UK Prime Minister, Theresa May addressed the House of Commons yesterday to inform them the agreement of up to £39 billion for the Brexit divorce bill would be dependent on a trade deal with the EU. In the last minute meetings last week, the UK also agreed to work to avoid a hard board in Northern Ireland, by aligning the UK rules with those of the EU and well as improve the rights of UK and EU expat citizens. However, the ‘deal is off the table’ if the UK does not have a withdrawal deal when it leaves the EU in March 2019. The EU are set to discuss whether enough has been done to move the talks onto trade on Thursday. 

Flows into safe haven currencies were seen yesterday, as an attempted terror attack took place at New York City’s main bus terminal. The attack injured four, including the suspect although none of the injuries were life-threatening, as the pipe bomb detonated. The attack which has been linked to the Islamic State is the second to take place in Manhattan since October.

Today’s markets

11th December 2017

  • GBP - CPI y/y
  • USD - PPI m/m
  • EUR - ECB President Draghi Speaks 

 The UK is set to release a raft of economic data this morning. CPI is expected to drop slightly from last month, to post 3%. This is still a full percent above the Bank of England’s target on two percent. The UK will also be releasing the PPI input figure, expected at 1.6%, as well as the RPI figure, expected to post 4.1%. In the Eurozone, Europe’s largest economy, Germany, will be releasing the German ZEW economic sentiment looking at the 6 month outlook for Germany from investors and analysts. The figure is expected to decline from last month’s 18.7 to 17.9. ECB President, Mario Draghi will be speaking at  the 2017 European Culture Days Closing Concert, which is hosted by the ECB. Across the pond, the US will be releasing the PPI figure for November, expected to remain at 0.4%.