Brexit fears continue

Yesterday’s markets

16th March 2016

  • JPY BOJ Press Conference
  • USD Core Retail Sales m/m: -0.1%
  • USD PPI m/m: -0.2%
  • USD Retail Sales m/m: -0.1%
  • USD Core PPI m/m: 0.0%
  • USD Empire State Manufacturing Index: 0.6
  • NZD GDT Price Index: -2.9%
  • NZD Current Account: -2.61B

Brexit concerns dominated yesterday’s market movement as a poll released by the Telegraph showed the exit campaign had taken the lead. The support to leave according to yesterday’s ORB poll is seven points ahead at 52 vs 45 which sparked a quick selloff of the Pound yesterday morning. The final outcome of course hangs in the balance, but with less than 100 days left until the referendum, yesterday’s poll has put further fears into the market after Boris Johnson’s shock comments earlier in the month.

Across the pond, the US released a raft of service sector and inflation data yesterday afternoon. The overall data was relatively mixed, PPI and Core Retail Sales remaining in negative territory. US Producer Price Index posted a -0.2%, whilst Core Retail Sedales registered a better than expected -0.1% after January’s poor -0.4%.  

Today’s markets

15th March 2016

  • GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y
  • GBP Claimant Count Change
  • GBP Unemployment Rate
  • GBP Annual Budget Release
  • USD Building Permits
  • USD CPI m/m
  • USD Core CPI m/m
  • USD Crude Oil Inventories
  • USD FOMC Economic Projections
  • USD FOMC Statement
  • USD Federal Funds Rate
  • USD FOMC Press Conference

Arguably the biggest day in the markets this week. We have a raft of data scheduled for release. Firstly, the UK unemployment rate is forecast to remain at the lows last seen in 2006 at 5.1%. The Annual Budget will also be released, starting at 12:30 this afternoon. After the European markets close the FOMC minutes are released. These could contain some key clues to the FOMC’s thought process in terms of further rate hikes during this year. No rate hike is expected but the big question will be whether or not the Fed are looking to carry on with gradual tightening this year.