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Can the US buck the trend ahead of FOMC minutes?

The Dollar remained under pressure last week after data failed to impress and shoo the hawks away from the currency. Greece made progress with its creditors as it managed to pay the IMF a scheduled payment, but despite this, political relationships between Greece and Europe remain under strain. Friday’s data did little to help sentiment in the US with the first reading of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment posting its lowest level since October.

The week ahead is busy and should give markets clues on future policies from the BoE, ECB and the FOMC. 

Monday 18th May 2015

Today is a very quiet day as the market reflects on last week and awaits the data from the week ahead.

Tuesday 19th May 2015

Key economic data is set for release from the UK, Eurozone and US today. Inflation from the UK is expected to post a flat level of zero, however, factory gate inflation is expected to rise higher which could potentially boost the Pound. Key institutional confidence levels will be assessed in Germany with the release of the ZEW survey. Meanwhile, the market will keep a close eye on data from the US to see if it bucks the negative sentiment trend.

  • UK CPI and PPI
  • German ZEW sentiment
  • US Building permits and housing starts

Wednesday 20th May 2015

All eyes will be on the voting pattern with the release of the BoE meeting minutes. In the previous meeting's minutes it was revealed that two members were close to voting for a hike in interest rates. Across the pond, the FOMC minutes are set for release. Given the poor run in data, these will be heavily scrutinized as investors look for clues on whether the door for a June rate hike is still ajar. 

  • BoE Meeting minutes
  • FOMC Meeting minutes

Thursday 21st May 2015

Another busy day in the market with key data released from the UK, Eurozone and US. Consumer spending will be under the microscope in the UK as retail sales hits the wires. Key service sector and manufacturing PMI's are released from the Eurozone and Germany. US weekly jobless claims will be closely monitored as will the Philly Fed manufacturing index.

  • German PMI services and manufacturing
  • Eurozone PMI services and manufacturing
  • UK Retail sales
  • US Jobless claims
  • US Philly fed manufacturing
  • US Existing home sales

Friday 22nd May 2015

Both BoE Gov. Carney and ECB President Draghi are due to speak later on in the day at the ECB Forum on Central Banking. As always, the market will keep an eagle eye on the language they use for clues on future policy. Meanwhile, the German IFO sentiment reading along with key US inflation data should keep the market busy.

  • UK Public sector borrowing
  • German IFO
  • US CPI