Chicago PMI exceeds expectations

Yesterday’s markets

1st April 2016

  • EUR German Retail Sales m/m: -0.4%
  • EUR Spanish Flash CPI y/y: -0.8%
  • GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
  • EUR German Unemployment Change: 0K
  • GBP Current Account: -32.7B
  • GBP Final GDP q/q: 0.6%
  • GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m: 4.9B
  • EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y: -0.1%
  • EUR Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y: 1.0%
  • USD Unemployment Claims: 276K
  • USD Chicago PMI: 53.6
  • USD FOMC Member Dudley Speaks

It was a big day yesterday for UK markets as we had the release of not only the final reading of GDP but also the much talked about current account that rocked the Pound last month. The current account which measures the difference between a country’s imports and exports has been dragging down the Pound of late, as overseas investors become more reticent about buying UK assets in the run-up to the EU referendum in June. The deficit came to another fresh low of -32.7B, the equivalent of 7% of the UK’s growth. UK GDP however, posted a better than expected 0.6%, helping to boost the Pound yesterday morning. 

Across the pond, the US released two pieces of high tier data, firstly Unemployment claims posted a worse than expected 276k. Shortly after, Chicago PMI expanded at a pace of 53.6 exceeding expectations of 50.5. Anything above 50 indicates expansion and below contraction. 

Today’s markets

31st March 2016

  • EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI
  • GBP Manufacturing PMI
  • EUR Unemployment Rate
  • USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m
  • USD Non-Farm Employment Change
  • USD Unemployment Rate
  • USD ISM Manufacturing PMI
  • USD Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
  • USD FOMC Member Mester Speaks

The world’s largest economy posts its most volatile piece of data today in the form of Non-Farm payrolls. Earlier this week we gained an insight into the figure with the release of the US ADP employment report. The March reading showed a better than expected 200k, narrowly exceeding its 195k forecasts. Today’s non-farm payroll figure is forecast north of the bullish 200k mark at 206k. Also on the economic docket we have the release of UK Manufacturing PMI forecast at 51.4, Eurozone unemployment rate and US unemployment rate both expected to remain sticky at 10.3% and 4.9% respectively.