Clinton’s emails back in the spotlight, will Carney stay?

Yesterday’s markets

1st November 2016

  • EUR German Retail Sales m/m: -1.4%
  • GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m: 4.7B
  • EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y: 0.5%
  • USD Personal Spending m/m: 0.5%
  • USD Chicago PMI: 20.6

The future of Bank of England Governor Mark Carney was on everybody’s minds yesterday and over the weekend. Speculation about his future dominated headlines yesterday as many suggest he will leave his position in 2018, sticking to his original five-year commitment. Many Brexit supporters have called for Governor Carney’s resignation which could have sparked the rumours. This week, the central bank is due to hold a press conference and deliver an inflation report, therefore these rumours could be squashed by Carney as earlier as Thursday.

Across the pond, the US general election took another turn over the weekend. Democrat Hilary Clinton’s chances of becoming President next week have depreciated after the FBI announced that it would revive its probe into her e-mail practices, citing a fresh trove of correspondence said to be relevant to the case. A poll released by ABC/Washington Post gave Clinton the lead by just one point, compared with a 12-point gap a week earlier. Leading markets to ponder the question, could another black swan event occur this year?

Today’s markets

31st October 2016

  • GBP Manufacturing PMI
  • USD ISM Manufacturing PMI
  • AUD Building Approvals m/m
  • CAD GDP m/m
  • CAD BOC Gov Poloz Speaks

Manufacturing PMI data dominates the docket for this day, as first the world’s second largest economy China posts theirs first overnight, with a slight slowdown expected on the month to be seen. UK manufacturing then falls into the spotlight as another weak figure is set to be posted as it is due to drop to 54.6 from the previous 55.4. Finally, the US complete the hat-trick of the manufacturing releases and is the only reading anticipated to show an increase to 51.8 from 51.5.