Construction PMI keeps the markets occupied until Dovish Draghi

Yesterday’s markets

4th November 2015

  • Spanish Unemployment Change: 82.3K
  • UK Construction PMI: 58.8
  • US Factory Orders m/m: -1.0%
  • NZD GDT Price Index: -7.4%
  • ECB President Draghi Speaks
  • NZD Employment Change q/q: -0.4%
  • NZD Unemployment Rate: 6.0%
  • AUD Retail Sales m/m: 0.4%
  • AUD Trade Balance: -2.32B

UK construction kept the markets entertained until last night’s European Cultural Days 2015 event where ECB President Mario Draghi addressed the market. Construction in the UK remained strong, posting an expected 58.8 as employment growth in the sector picked up to its fastest since November 2014. Business activity continued to rise in all three construction sub-categories and construction as a whole continued to expand for its 30th consecutive month.

ECB President Mario Draghi addressed the markets yesterday in Frankfurt. The ECB President continued his dovish stance and stated that they will review the degree of monetary stimulus they have deployed when they meet in December and remain willing and able to act if needed. This has pushed the single currency lower as it is a slight change of tone he expressed on the weekend.

Today’s markets

3rd November 2015

  • ECB President Draghi Speaks
  • UK Services PMI
  • US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
  • CAD Trade Balance
  • US Trade Balance
  • US Fed Chair Yellen Testifies
  • US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
  • US Crude Oil Inventories
  • AUD RBA Gov Stevens Speaks

Market activity should pick up from this point onwards as the economic calendar becomes packed with tier one data and news. Both ECB President Draghi and Fed Chair Yellen are due to address the market at separate events. Draghi is due to deliver opening remarks at the ECB Forum on Banking Supervision and Yellen is to testify on bank regulation before the House Financial Services Committee, in Washington DC. Both will be scrutinised for clues on future policy.

It has been rumoured that Fed Chair Janet Yellen and her two lieutenants will be looking to reiterate the message for a December lift off, after the recent criticism that the Central Bank’s communication has become the most uncertain in the market. Looking at data, we also have the UK PMI Services which is the dominate sector. From the US, we get an early indication of how Friday’s job numbers could look with the release of the ADP employment report and the ISM non-manufacturing is scheduled for release.