Despite impressive data, Sterling continues to struggle

Yesterday’s markets

30th September 2015

  • German Prelim CPI m/m: -0.2%
  • Spanish Flash CPI y/y: -0.9%
  • UK Net Lending to Individuals m/m: 4.3B
  • US Goods Trade Balance: -67.2B
  • US CB Consumer Confidence: 103.0
  • BoE Gov Carney Speaks
  • NZD ANZ Business Confidence: -18.9
  • AUD Building Approvals m/m: -6.9%

UK data dominated yesterday’s morning session as we had the release of UK CBI realised sales and mortgage approvals. Firstly, sales and orders both grew on the high street last month, beating expectations of 29 and posting a bullish 49. The robust pace of growth is also forecast to continue next month as sales volume continue to rise. Just before this release, UK mortgage approvals followed suit and exceeded economists’ consensus, posting a reading of 71k. Currently the market is starting to taper back their expectation of a hike in February but yesterday’s better than expected data could put this back in play.

Across the pond, consumer confidence in the US exceeded the bullish 100 mark for the second month in a row, posting a better than expected 103. Consumer led growth is the driver of the US economy at the moment and this piece of data cements that fact. CB consumer confidence figure was forecast to decline, however, it continued the up-trend at an impressive pace and has now added further evidence for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this year.

Today’s markets

29th September 2015

  • German Retail Sales m/m
  • UK Current Account
  • UK Final GDP q/q
  • EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y
  • EUR Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y
  • EUR Unemployment Rate
  • US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
  • CAD GDP m/m
  • Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
  • CNY Manufacturing PMI
  • CNY Caixin Final Manufacturing PMI

A busy day is expected in the market Wednesday as data releases and key speakers are scheduled. In Europe, the German retail sales and unemployment numbers will be keenly watched. Meanwhile, in the UK the final reading of Q2 GDP is not expected to change whilst the current account numbers are also set for release. Crossing the pond, the market will get an early indication of how the all-important employment numbers will be on Friday with the release of the ADP employment report. Finally, FOMC Chair Yellen is due to deliver opening remarks at the Federal Reserve's annual community banking conference.