Doha Oil Summit dominates headlines
Today is a slow start to the week as there are no high or mid tier data releases. The main news of the day came from the oil summit in Doha this morning, where the world’s biggest oil producers met to discuss the current over supply of oil. The talks ended without any agreement on limiting the supply and in turn saw the price of oil tumble the most in two months. With the Saudi’s not willing to restrain production without the commitments from other major producers including Iran, the fallout of the oil price decline again is set to weigh further on the world’s inflation prices which already has central banks trying to tackle all time low price pressures.
Today will see some data releases firstly in the morning from Germany as they are set to post an increase in their ZEW Economic Sentiment to around 8.2 from the previous 4.3. After midday we get an insight into US housing as the release of Building permits and new housing starts are posted, with expectations to both remain in line with previous readings. In the afternoon the head of the BoE Mark Carney, is set to testify before the Lords economic affairs committee and will have markets watching for any comments relating to any concerns of Brexit, or any plans the BoE are possibly looking to take regarding this uncertainty to the UK economy.
- German ZEW Economic Sentiment
- US Housing Starts
- US Building Permits
- UK BOE Gov Mark Carney testifies
Focus is on the UK as the release of several high tier labour data is seen in the morning. The headline figure will be the average earnings which is forecast to remain constant at 2.1%, however a reading either side of this could see volatility for the Pound as this is one indicator the Bank of England are using to determine a rate rise. Along with this the Claimant count change is expected to increase to -11.9K and the Unemployment rate is to stay at 5.1%. Across the pond from the US, Crude oil inventories are to rebound from the first fall in two month seen last time.
- UK Average Earnings
- UK Claimant Count
- UK Unemployment Rate
- US Crude Oil inventories
The European Central Bank rate decision and conference will be the main focus, with no change expected as markets continuously watch to see what comments are made by the ECB. As inflation has now come out of deflationary territory last week, it will be watched for further guidance in maintaining their efforts to stave off any further deflationary threats. The UK’s monthly Retail Sales are set for release in the morning with the gauge to move closer to zero after its -0.4% reading last time.
- UK Retail Sales m/m
- Euro ECB Rate decision
- Euro ECB Press conference
- Euro Consumer confidence
The week ends with a host of manufacturing and services PMI releases out of the Eurozone. Both overall figures for the single currency zone are forecast to increase slightly and would reflect stability being maintained across the Eurozone. In the afternoon, the US post their manufacturing PMI gauge with a slight increase also expected.
- Euro French Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI
- Euro German Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI
- Euro Manufacturing and Services PMI
- US Manufacturing PMI