Economic data distracts markets from Greece

Yesterday’s markets

15th July 2015

  • UK CPI y/y: 0.0%
  • German ZEW Economic Sentiment: 29.7
  • UK Inflation Report Hearings
  • BoE Gov Carney Speaks
  • US Core Retail Sales m/m: -0.1%
  • US Retail Sales m/m: -0.3%
  • CNY GDP q/y: 7.0%
  • CNY Industrial Production y/y: 6.8%

Data from both sides of the pond gave the market a bit of a break from the ongoing Greek story. US retail figures unexpectedly dropped in June, de-railing optimism about the strength of the rebound in the US’s tertiary sector during Q2. Retail sales fell from a five year high of 1.2% to a worse than expected -0.3%. An early Memorial Day holiday that may have boosted sales in May at the expense of last month and also a longer school year combined with the harsh winter weather led to the subdued sales numbers for the quarter.

UK inflation data disappointed as oil prices kept UK inflation flat. UK CPI the most watched inflationary figure remained anaemic, whilst PPI and HPI (producer and house price index) both failed to meet expectations. Following this was the German ZEW economic sentiment (a figure that monitors confidence in the Eurozone’s powerhouse economy), missed economists’ consensus and posted its worst figure since November 2014 at 29.7.

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney gave the Pound a boost yesterday morning. Carney said that the performance of the economy was pushing officials closer to tightening policy. He also added another variable to raising rates, he said that the Central bank will now be looking at household sensitivity as one of the key decisions in raising rates. Hawkish comments from the governor pushed GBPUSD higher and set a new one week high against the Greenback.

Today’s markets

14th July 2015

  • BoJ Press Conference
  • UK Average Earnings Index 3m/y
  • UK Claimant Count Change
  • Eurogroup Meetings
  • CAD Manufacturing Sales m/m
  • US PPI m/m
  • Fed Chair Yellen Testifies

The Greek deadline for a decision looms and the headlines will be focused on this. However, deadlines have been missed on several occasions, so there is every chance this will be extended once again. Meanwhile, there is key data from the UK with the average earnings and unemployment numbers. Crossing the pond the US has the producer price index and Empire manufacturing data due for release. However, the focus will be on FOMC Chair Yellen who is due to testify on the Semi-annual Monetary Policy Report before the House Financial Services Committee, in Washington DC.