Economic data distracts markets from politics

Yesterday’s markets

2nd June 2017

  • GBP - Manufacturing PMI: 56.7
  • USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: 253K
  • USD - Unemployment Claims: 248K

The UK manufacturing PMI yesterday posted slightly better than expected at 56.7 against 56.5. The reading did not deter too much from the consensus, therefore Sterling remained relatively stable after the release. The reading registered above the 50 mark, indicating expansion in the sector. The higher than anticipated figure bodes well for the next two PMI’s scheduled; construction today and services PMI Monday. If these releases follow suit and post exceed forecasts we should see Sterling strengthen ahead of the election.

Across the pond, Donald Trump announced last night that he will be pulling out of the Paris Accord. The agreement, signed by 188 countries, commits to cutting carbon emissions and to keep global temperatures ‘well below’ 2C above pre-industrial times. The only countries currently not in the agreement are Syria and Nicaragua. Trump mentioned loss of GDP and jobs as the reason behind his decision. However, the process of leaving is unlikely to be completed until 2020. There has been a mixed reaction to the announcement across the states, a few have publicly expressed their support for the decision and others disagreeing have been protesting and calling it ‘one of the worst policy moves’. Many global leaders expressed their disappointment for Trump’s decision. 

Today’s markets

1st June 2017

  • GBP - Construction PMI
  • CAD - Trade Balance
  • USD - Average Hourly Earnings m/m

The US labour market takes centre stage today as we have two pieces of high tier data released.

Firstly, UK Construction PMI is scheduled this morning and expected to continue to expand at a pace of 52.7. In the afternoon, the headline Unemployment rate from the States is forecast to remain sticky at 4.4%. We end the week with the all-important Non-Farm Payrolls. The NFP is expected to post a healthy 186k so we expect to see further volatility.