Markets yesterday continued to digest the global relief rally we saw on Sunday, after French Presidential candidate Macron cruised the first round of voting in the French Presidential vote. EUR/USD especially made good ground, moving over a percent after the news, to reach a level last seen in November when the US election took place.
With the spotlight continuing to focus on politics, the latest polls show that Prime Minister Theresa May has a lead of at least 20 percentage points over labour. If this gap is maintained and we see no further black swan events, we should see May and Macron elected by 8th June. This will refocus the market on the ongoing Brexit negotiations as Macron is significantly pro-EU, and could provide cause volatility for Sterling.
Another quiet data slate today, where we only have two pieces of high tier data from the States. Firstly, the US post their monthly consumer confidence figure. This is forecast to show a slight slowdown in confidence but not stray too far away from last month’s 125.6. Shortly after, New Home sales are released and forecast to remain at the 590k reading.