Eurozone CPI in focus

Yesterday’s markets

31st May 2016

  • EUR German Prelim CPI m/m: 0.3%
  • Spanish Flash CPI y/y: -1.0%
  • JPY Household Spending y/y: -0.4%
  • NZD ANZ Business Confidence: 11.3
  • AUD Building Approvals m/m: 3.0%
  • AUD Current Account: -20.8B

It was a relatively quiet day yesterday as both the UK and US were closed in observance of Spring bank holiday for the UK and Memorial day for the States. Therefore, liquidity was light and smaller moves were exaggerated. The test of the 200 day moving average level for EUR/USD once again remained firm, whilst GBP/USD slowly ticked higher throughout the day. The economic docket was also light, as the only high tier data released was CPI m/m figure from Germany. German CPI bounced back from deflation territory to 0.3%, as expected. 

Over the weekend, Steve Hilton called into question Brexit campaign claims that EU directives prevented the UK from offering new parents more time off work. The former coalition business minister, claimed that the EU “blocked” attempts by the Government to extend paternity and maternity leave. David Cameron’s former strategy guru, Hilton is strongly in favour of Vote Leave. The upcoming Referendum is less than a month away now and volatility is expected to increase as we get closer to the vote. 

Today’s markets

30th May 2016

  • EUR German Retail Sales m/m
  • EUR German Unemployment Change
  • EUR M3 Money Supply y/y
  • EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y
  • EUR Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y
  • USD Core PCE Price Index m/m
  • USD Personal Spending m/m
  • USD Chicago PMI
  • USD CB Consumer Confidence
  • AUD GDP q/q

The economic calendar will be relatively quiet today. This morning the Eurozone CPI figure will be released which gives an insight into the single currency union’s inflation. CPI is forecast to register at -0.1%, whilst the core CPI, which excludes the volatile food, energy and alcohol prices is expected to register at 0.8%. Across the pond, the US will release two pieces of high tier data. Chicago PMI and CB Consumer Confidence readings are both forecast to improve on last month’s figures.