Fed minutes show a close call

Yesterday’s markets

13th October 2016

  • GBP MPC Member Cunliffe Speaks
  • USD FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
  • USD FOMC Member George Speaks
  • USD JOLTS Job Openings: 5.44M
  • USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
  • CNY Trade Balance: 278B

Yesterday, the UK Parliament discussed a motion from the opposition Labour Party, calling for a “full transparent debate on the government’s plan for leaving the European Union”. The discussion was supposed to allow MPs to properly scrutinize PM Theresa May’s Brexit plan before she begins formal talks. May’s comments before the event helped to boost the Pound after a sharp decline Tuesday Evening. May accepted that Parliament should be allowed to vote on her strategy plan for taking Britain out of the European Union.

Last night’s release of the Fed minutes still provided no more clarity to markets on the possible timing of the next rate increase. The minutes from September’s meeting showed that the FOMC members came close to raising rates, but members are still split on when the next rate increase will be. Some participants believe that it would be appropriate to act soon if the economy and labour market continued to show improvements, other FOMC members want more convincing evidence that inflation was showing stronger signs of moving towards their 2% target level. A majority of the Fed members believe it will be appropriate to raise rates once before the year ends, leaving December’s meeting as the most probable time for the Fed to act.

Today’s markets

12th October 2016

  • CAD NHPI m/m
  • USD Unemployment Claims
  • USD Import Prices m/m
  • USD Crude Oil Inventories
  • AUD RBA Financial Stability Review
  • CNY CPI y/y

Overnight, China the world’s second largest economy will release their Trade Balance figure for September. As the decline in China’s demand has seen a drag on the global economy as a whole, all high tier data releases in Asia are going to be watched intently to see if China’s economy is still slowing. From the US, the Weekly Unemployment claims data is scheduled for release. Jobless claims in the US are forecast to remain relatively unchanged from last week’s better than expected 249k reading.