French Elections settle nerves and Trump hits another roadblock
The French elections settled investors’ nerves last week as centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron came out on top in the first debate between the main contenders to be the next President of France. Economists’ are now forecasting Macron as the hot favourite and see the Eurozone's relationship improving the most of any other policy if he’s elected.
Across the pond, US President Donald Trump hit another roadblock as the embattled health care bill lost the vote to repeal and replace Obamacare. Trump lashed out at Republican leaders and groups after the defeat of the bill. The failure suggests that there seems to be lots of disagreements within the Republican Party.
The big event of the week will be the Article 50 notification by the UK on Wednesday. A volatile reaction is unlikely as this has been expected and priced in to the market, unless the reception in the EU is relatively hostile.
A relatively light economic docket Tuesday. The only piece of notable data released will be from the States as the US consumer confidence is released. Markets will be tentative leading up to Wednesday’s triggering of Article 50.
- US Consumer Confidence
The biggest day of the week as the UK officially trigger Article 50. Downing Street has said Prime Minister May would write a letter to the European Council, adding that it hoped negotiations on the terms of exit and future relations could then begin as quickly as possible. A comment from an EU spokesman said that it was “ready and waiting” for the letter. Across the pond, the US release their pending home sales, forecast to bounce back to 2.3%.
- US Pending Home Sales
- Triggering of Article 50
The US release their third and final reading of GDP this Thursday. US GDP has exceeded market expectations every quarter since June 2015. GDP in the States is forecast at 2%, however with the track record we could see this beat expectations once again.
- US Final reading GDP
- US Jobless Claims
A busy end to the week as we gain high tier data from both the Eurozone and UK. Firstly, the UK current account, which measures the difference between imports and exports are forecast to narrow. Shortly after, we gain an insight into the Eurozone’s inflation with the release of CPI.
- UK Current Account
- Eurozone CPI