Further signs of FOMC December lift-off

Yesterday’s markets

26th November 2015

  • AUD RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks 
  • GBP Autumn Forecast Statement
  • USD Core Durable Goods Order m/m: 0.5%
  • USD Unemployment Claims: 260K
  • USD Durable Goods Orders m/m: 3.0%
  • USD Personal Spending m/m: 0.1%
  • USD New Home Sales: 495K
  • NZD Trade Balance: -963M
  • AUD Private Capital Expenditure q/q: -9.2%

As expected, it was quiet yesterday with the lead up to the US Thanksgiving holiday season, but this will change with the upcoming Black Friday and Cyber Monday spending days.  Meanwhile, the US docket was packed with some noticeable releases. The Durable Goods Order caught attention as orders rebounded better than expected in October, rising 3%. The rebound in the Durable Goods Orders by $6.9 billion last month followed two straight periods of declines and the timing couldn’t be better for the FOMC which is leaning towards a hike in December. In addition we also saw better than expected jobless claims. The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, drifting back to near 42-year lows as labour market conditions continue to tighten.

Meanwhile, the main news in the UK was the release of the Autumn Statement. The speech, made up of an Autumn Statement and a Spending Review, included a significant change of tactics - by scrapping his recent plan to cut tax credits (which was rejected in the House of Lords).  It will be interesting to see how this will translate to the wider economy.

Today’s markets

25th November 2015

  • EUR M3 Money Supply y/y
  • JPY Household Spending y/y
  • Tokyo Core CPI y/y
  • GBP Gfk Consumer Confidence 

A quiet day on the docket today as the world’s largest economy is closed in observance of Thanksgiving Day. Due to the US banks being closed, this could lead to high unexpected currency fluctuations as liquidity will be low throughout the day.