Greece to default but no Grexit

Yesterday’s markets

29th May 2015

  • USD FOMC Member Williams
  • GBP Second estimates
  • All G7 meetings
  • USD Unemployment claims

Greece’s far left government has continued to battle over the months over aid for a reforms deal; they seem no closer to that much need last tranche of €7.2bn. As the major loan repayment looms, time is fast running out and yesterday the ECB vice president Vitor Constancio ruled out the possibility of a Grexit but not the prospect of a default from Athens. Suggestions yesterday from Greece were that it was getting nearer to an agreement with its creditors, which was swiftly denied. This uncertainty is set to remain as this turbulent time drags on.

The U.K. posted its second reading of growth domestic products (GDP) for Q1, with expectations for growth set to improve to 0.4%. This figure disappointed, staying at 0.3% however Sterling lost little ground despite this coming out below economists forecasts. The economy still remains in expansion for the ninth straight quarter, the longest since 2008. Investment in business and consumer spending is the main driving force of this GDP, with the continued drag of Britain's trade holding back growth.

From across the pond, weekly jobless claims came out of the U.S. and missed market consensus rising by 282,000. With the greenback being on the front foot all week this pared back a little of its gains seen earlier in the week. However later yesterday afternoon the monthly home sales figure shot up to a very bullish high of 3.4%, its highest level in nine years.  

Today’s markets

28th May 2015

  • ALL G7 meetings
  • EUR German retail sales
  • USD Preliminary GDP
  • USD Chicago PMI

Today the headline figure will be on the U.S. releasing their second reading of Q1 GDP.  The figure which is currently at 0.2% is expected to drop to an abysmal -0.8%. Is this figures comes out lower than this, we could see a very large drop in the Dollar.