Greece miss deadline

Yesterday’s markets

1st July 2015

  • UK Current Account: -26.5B
  • UK Final GDP q/q: 0.4%
  • RBA Gov Stevens Speaks
  • Euro CPI Flash Estimate y/y: 0.8%
  • Euro Unemployment Rate: 11.1%

Greece continues to be the market focus as yesterday’s IMF deadline hit. Greece requested a new two year bailout program from the Euro region as the country edged closer towards a financial cliff. Greek PM Tsipras called for the aid from the European Stability Mechanism. Tsipras is asking for cover for all of Greece’s financial needs for the next two years, alongside a debt-restructuring plan. However, again the proposal did not include any economic reform measures as requested by European negotiators. Subsequently, this has been rejected as officials site that Tsipras is attempting to rally the nation to vote “No” in Sunday’s referendum.

On the data front, we gained two pieces of high tier economic releases. Firstly the UK current account disappointed market expectations and widened to -26.5B, increasing the gap between Britain’s imports and exports. In the afternoon, the US released their CB consumer confidence figure. The reading increased to 101.4 in June from 94.6 a month earlier. The bullish figure again highlights the strong economic performance trend of late, adding fuel to the fire for an earlier than expected Fed rate hike. Meanwhile Fed Vice-Chair Stanley Fischer told a UK audience that the US economy is now close to full employment. If we continue to see data improve and rhetoric from officials remain upbeat, then a September “lift off” is likely.

Today’s markets

30th June 2015

  • UK Manufacturing PMI
  • BoE Gov Carney Speaks
  • BoE Financial Stability Report
  • Eurogroup Meetings
  • US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
  • US ISM Manufacturing PMI

Focus will move onto the UK and US today. From the UK, BoE Gov Carney is due to hold a press conference about the Financial Stability Report. The markets will be looking for clues on interest rate policy after rumours of an early rate hike could be on the cards. Meanwhile, we will get an early indication of how the all-important jobs numbers will look with the release of the ADP employment report.