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Growth, inflation, and labour data to create market movement


Monday is a quiet day for economic data with New Zealand Card Spending and Japanese Loans and Discounts data released overnight. Swiss Sight Deposits, Australian Weekly Consumer Confidence and New Zealand Food Prices will also be published. With so little influential economic data released, markets will look towards global events or political developments for movement. The Pound traded as high as $1.3176 against the US Dollar on Brexit optimism last week, marking a three-week high. However, positive sentiment that a deal could be made is fading, as questions over the Northern Ireland border step into the spotlight once again. Investors in Sterling will be keeping a close eye on how Brexit progress plays out in the week ahead.  


One of the biggest events on Tuesday will be the UK’s September labour market data. Investors will be paying particular attention to the latest Average Weekly Earnings and Employment Change numbers, and both figures could contribute significantly to the Pound’s value. Meanwhile, in the Eurozone, the latest Economic Sentiment reading will be out for November. October had noted a -19.4 contraction and an improvement could offer the Euro some support. However, it seems unlikely; other recent indicators have seen confidence weaken to levels not seen since 2016. The German Survey Expectations and Current Situation Survey will also reach markets which could influence the common currency. In the US, the only data of note comes in the form of the US Monthly Budget Statement.  
Also out in Tuesday’s session will be the latest Japanese growth numbers which are forecast to contract by -1.1% in Q3 after 3.0% growth in the previous reading. Additionally, Australian Business and Consumer Confidence data will reach markets.


Wednesday is expected to be one of the most interesting days for economic data. The data stream will begin in the morning with German Gross Domestic Product (GDP) readings. Shortly after, the UK will release its October Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures. The September number resided at 2.4% (1.9% for the core measure).
As the session continues, the Eurozone’s GDP growth ecostat will be revealed, followed by the US inflation number. The September inflation figure came in at 0.1% on the month, and 2.3% on the year. There are plenty of questions as to whether inflation will begin to fall away from the Federal Reserve’s target in the near-term, meaning investors will be paying close attention. The day will close with Fed Chair Jerome Powell discussing the economy in Dallas which could prove significant for the USD exchange rate.
Additionally, China will release a raft of economic indicators, including Retail Sales, Industrial Production, and Surveyed Jobless Rate numbers. Australia’s Wage Price Index and Japan’s Industrial Production and Housing Loans figures will also come to light.


Heads will be turned by US Advance Retail Sales data on Thursday. The September figure had shown a disappointing 0.1% reading, and economists have forecast a 0.5% rise for October. Coming in at this level or above could help the US Dollar gain against other majors. Weekly US Jobless Claims and Continuing Claims numbers will be out, along with Business Inventories data. Figures from the Eurozone and the UK will be thin on the ground, leaving the Euro and the Pound to fluctuate on other market events or political developments.
Investors in the Australian Dollar will be paying close attention to Thursday’s Aussie Unemployment Rate, Employment Change, and Consumer Inflation Expectation numbers. New Zealand Manufacturing data will also emerge. 


Friday will close the week with a host of medium-tier economic data. The final October Eurozone Consumer Price Index reading will reach markets, followed by US Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production numbers. The Eurozone’s initial CPI print reached 2.2%, the highest level since 2012 on the back of rising energy prices which have risen by 10.6% in the last year.