‘Hard Brexit’ talks re-emerge

Yesterday’s markets

5th January 2017

  • GBP - Construction PMI: 54.2
  • USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes
  • CNY - Caixin Services PMI: 53.4
  • EUR - Spanish Unemployment Change: -86.8K
  • GBP - Net Lending to Individuals m/m: 5.1B
  • EUR - CPI Flash Estimate y/y: 1.1%
  • EUR - Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y: 0.9%

UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit campaign took another blow yesterday as one of her key European Union Ambassador’s dramatically resigned. Sir Ivan Rogers, the top British envoy to the European Union resigned yesterday. The departure and the loss of the experienced Rogers will no doubt weaken the UK’s position to negotiate. Talks of a so-called ‘hard Brexit’ have now re-emerged after the surprising resignation of such a key player.

Yesterday’s main event was released by the States as the Federal Reserve issued last month’s rate hiking minutes. The Greenback fell against the majority of its counter-parties as economists digested last night’s minutes. The Fed minutes showed uncertainty over how President-elect Donald Trump’s policies would impact the pace of interest-rate increases. Of course, any uncertainty in the market will hurt a currency and the Dollar fell after this release early yesterday evening.

Today’s markets

4th January 2017

  • GBP - Services PMI: 56.2
  • USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
  • USD - Unemployment Claims
  • USD - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
  • USD - Crude Oil Inventories

Another jam packed economic docket today as a raft of high tier data is released to and from the pond. Firstly, UK services PMI is expected to tick slightly lower from last month’s 55.2 to 54.8, continuing above 50 and therefore indicating expansion once again in the UK’s largest sector. Shortly after, the States release their ADP non-farm, expected at 171k. The all-important NFP hits the wires Friday and this afternoons ADP will be a key indicator of what that key piece of labour data could be. Finally, the US releases the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI at 15:00 UK time, forecast to show a slight down tick to 56.6.

Have a good day.