‘Have cake and eat it’ Brexit Strategy?

Yesterday’s markets

30th November 2016

  • EUR German Prelim CPI m/m: 0.1%
  • USD Prelim GDP q/q: 1.4%
  • USD CB Consumer Confidence: 107.1
  • NZD RBNZ Gov Wheeler Speaks
  • NZD RBNZ Financial Stability Report

The economic docket was jam packed with US data yesterday. Firstly, the US released their Preliminary reading of Q3 GDP. The figure continued the decent data trend from the States of late and posted a better than expected 3.2%. Shortly after, CB consumer confidence registered a 107.1, exceeding economists’ consensus.

Onto Brexit news, a photograph of hand written notes caught on camera in Westminster showed the UK plans to “have their cake and eat it” in reference to Brexit talks and the EU single market. The photos were taken after Conservative MP Mark Field had left a meeting with the Brexit department at 9 Downing Street. The government deny these notes belong to a government official or a special advisor as they try to distance themselves from the comments.

Today’s markets

29th November 2016

  • EUR German Retail Sales m/m
  • GBP Bank Stress Test Results
  • ALL OPEC Meetings
  • EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
  • USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
  • CAD GDP m/m

Today’s OPEC meeting continues to be at the forefront of the market's mind. The latest is that Russia will not attend tomorrow's crucial negotiations. The chances of a deal to cut production looks extremely unlikely. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. have warned that the price of a barrel of crude may swing a whopping $6 on Wednesday as the volatile event takes place. Probability of an agreement tomorrow in Vienna have now been cut to just 30 percent.

The Eurozone CPI yearly figures will also comes into focus this morning. With Consumer Prices due to show a rise of 0.6% from 0.5%. This would be a welcome relief for the ECB if another rise in prices is seen, as it would take the pressure off them having to possibly add further measures to help push it towards the target goal of 2%. Shortly following this, the head of the ECB Mario Draghi, is set to speak in Madrid about the future of Europe. As always his comments will be watched by markets for any clues into any further monetary policy changes. 

Across the pond, the US private reading of the Non-farm employment figure is set for release, and as a pre-cursor to Friday's employment figure the markets will watch for an insight into what the Fridays figure may be.