Inflation data dominates news wires

Yesterday’s markets

18th May 2016

  • CHF PPI m/m: 0.3%
  • GBP CPI y/y: 0.3%
  • GBP PPI Input m/m: 0.9%
  • GBP RPI y/y: 1.3%
  • USD Building Permits: 1.12M
  • USD CPI m/m: 0.4%
  • USD Core CPI m/m: 0.2%
  • USD Housing Starts: 1.17M
  • USD Capacity Utilization Rate: 75.4%
  • USD Industrial Production m/m: 0.7%
  • NZD GDT Price Index: 2.6%
  • NZD PPI Input q/q: -1.0%

Consumer Price Index from both the UK and US was yesterday’s main focus as we gained an insight into inflation to and from the pond. Firstly, UK CPI disappointed, missing expectations and registering a 0.3% for the year, whilst the monthly reading posted its lowest figure since January this year at 0.1%, just above deflation territory. Across the pond, Consumer Prices in the US last month, climbed by the most in three years. This gives the markets a strong indication that inflation may be picking up toward the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal. US CPI exceeded economists’ consensus by 0.1% to 0.4%. 

In other news, Oil managed to hold Monday’s gains yesterday, ahead of tomorrow’s high tier US inventories data that is forecast to show a decline of 3.5m barrel drop. Production cuts due to wildfires in Canada and militant violence in Nigeria have helped the rally, but doubts persist over whether oil can tick above the key psychological level of $50.

Today’s markets

17th May 2016

  • GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y
  • GBP Claimant Count Change
  • GBP Unemployment Rate
  • EUR Final CPI y/y 
  • USD Crude Oil Inventories
  • USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
  • GBP MPC Member Haldane Speaks
  • AUD Employment Change
  • AUD Unemployment Rate

Employment data from the UK is released in the morning with unemployment expected to remain at 5.1%, the amount of people claiming unemployment will be watched to see if it does only increase by 4.1k as forecast. Also Average Earnings will be heavily watched by the markets as it is a barometer which the BoE are watching to know when to raise rates. Earnings three months to April are expected to drop slightly to 1.7% from 1.8%. The Eurozone post their inflation figure shortly after the UK is posted, with the single currency zone expected to remain in deflation territory at -0.2%. Lastly in the evening, the Fed minutes will hit the wires, and all will look to decipher the language and if the Fed members are still looking to raise rates this year.