Markets await ‘Dovish’ Draghi tonight

Yesterday’s markets

3rd November 2015

  • CHF Retail Sales y/y: 0.2%
  • EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI: 51.3
  • UK Manufacturing PMI: 55.5
  • US ISM Manufacturing PMI: 50.1
  • FOMC Member Williams Speaks
  • AUD Cash Rate: 2.00%
  • AUD RBA Rate Statement

After ECB President Mario Draghi’s comments over the weekend published in an Italian newspaper, today’s ECB commentary will be heavily scrutinised. Draghi is scheduled to speak at 20:00 UK time tonight after another dovish stance in II Sole 24 Ore, where Draghi played down the Eurozone’s economic performance and remained negative on inflation. Draghi has also left the door open for further stimulus measures at potentially the next meeting in December. Tonight’s meeting will therefore bring much attention as market’s continue to decipher the ECB’s policy stance.

In terms of data, manufacturing PMI’s to and from the pond dominated both sessions yesterday. Firstly, in the morning session the UK released its manufacturing PMI which posted its best reading since July 2014, boosting the Pound yesterday. The start of the final quarter saw the UK manufacturing sector post a bullish 55.5, stepping out of the subdued trend experienced throughout the year. Meanwhile, the world’s largest economy posted their manufacturing PMI, forecast at 50.0. Anything above 50 indicates expansion and below contraction. The reading ticked slightly over expectations at 50.1, remaining in expansion for just over nearly two and a half years. 

Today’s markets

2nd November 2015

  • Spanish Unemployment Change
  • UK Construction PMI
  • US Factory Orders m/m
  • NZD GDT Price Index
  • ECB President Draghi Speaks
  • NZD Employment Change q/q
  • NZD Unemployment Rate
  • AUD Retail Sales m/m
  • AUD Trade Balance

A slightly quieter day with limited economic data. The UK’s construction data will be the key highlight. However, after the European markets close, ECB President Draghi is due to deliver opening remarks at the European Cultural Days 2015 event, in Frankfurt. Given the expectations for ECB policy action in December, the market will wait with baited breath for any clues that Draghi drops in his rhetoric.