Friday ended with the Pound losing its gains from earlier in the week. Sterling declined after the UK Services PMI reading fell into contraction territory, with a disappointing reading of 47.4 compared to June which registered at 52.3. This slump to a seven-and-a-half-year low does not bode well for the UK economy which saw the new orders figure fall in July.
Today’s main data releases will come from Germany, as the Ifo business climate data is released. Markets will again look to see if the Brexit concerns continue to weaken Business Confidence.
The main focus will be on the US, which will be releasing its Consumer Confidence figure. This is an important gauge for the markets and the Fed, as consumer spending accounts for most of the economic activity for the US. Consumer Confidence is expected to drop to 95.6 from 98.0. Also from the US, the first reading for Services PMI is to be released and forecast to remain in line with the previous reading of 51.4.
Possibly the biggest day of the week, as the focus will be on the Fed as they give their rate decision, followed by the FOMC statement in the evening. Although recent US data has removed any expectation of the Fed tightening monetary policy, the markets will be watching to see when the members say the next rate hike may be seen. In the morning the first reading of the UK’s Q2 GDP is released, which is expected grow to 0.5% from 0.4%. However, after the poor data releases lately, the Pound could be under pressure again.
After the high tier data releases on Wednesday, Thursday will be very quiet day. In the morning, Germany will release the monthly inflation figure followed by the unemployed number. After midday the US also post the weekly Unemployment Claims figure.
US and the euro zone will release the first readings of Q2 GDP, with the single currency zones released first. The markets will look to see if the figure does drop to 0.3% from 0.6% which will prove that economic conditions are slowing. Following this, the y/y inflation figure will be released and with the constant battle of having deflationary pressures, the gauge currently at 0.1% could easily drop back below zero. The US in contrast are expecting their Q2 GDP first reading to increase to 2.6%, although economic data so far has not been positive enough for the Fed to increase rates, the economy is showing improvements.