Markets watch Aussie Dollar for signs of fluctuation

Yesterday’s markets

5th April 2016

  • EUR Spanish Unemployment Change: -58.2K
  • GBP Construction PMI: 54.2
  • EUR Unemployment Rate: 10.3%
  • USD Factory Orders m/m: -1.7%
  • NZD NZIER Business Confidence: 2
  • AUD Trade Balance: -3.41B

It was a relatively quiet economic docket yesterday as we only gained two pieces of medium tier data from the Eurozone and UK, the US released no notable data as well. Firstly, Construction PMI from the UK posted a slightly worse than expected 54.2 as the UK’s secondary sector continues to lag, declining for the fourth consecutive month. However, the reading was above 50, indicating expansion in the sector. Shortly after, the Eurozone registered its unemployment rate, a figure which remained sticky at 10.3%, its lowest level since January 2012. 

Over the weekend, WikiLeaks sparked speculation with comments that it had obtained details of a discussion last month between two IMF officials in charge of managing the Greek debt crisis. There is speculation around the IMF planning to tell Germany that it will abandon the Troika if the IMF and the European Commission fail to reach an agreement on Greek debt relief. According to the transcript, the Greek default will coincide with the Brexit referendum, leaving European decision making incapacitated. IMF Chief Christine Lagarde has dismissed the reports, however speculation in the market remains, adding further volatility into the Euro.

Today’s markets

4th April 2016

  • AUD Cash Rate
  • AUD RBA Rate Statement
  • EUR German Factory Orders m/m
  • GBP Services PMI
  • CAD Trade Balance
  • USD Trade Balance
  • USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
  • USD JOLTS Job Openings
  • NZD GDT Price Index
  • CAD Gov Council Member Wilkins Speaks
  • CNY Caixin Services PMI

Early hours of the morning will see the release of the RBA rate decision followed by the Reserve Bank of Australia statement release. Rates are not expected to change from the 2% but any adjustment will see the Aussie Dollar fluctuate. The UK release the Services PMI, the biggest of all the PMI’s from Britain as it makes up around 80% of the GDP figure.  Market consensus is for Services to expand slightly to 53.9, but a poor figure seen here could trigger another bout of the Pound being sold.  From the US the IMS Non-manufacturing PMI is posted along with the Trade Balance.