May’s roadmap

​​​​​Today's headlines:

  • 'Tory MPs give Theresa May one day to set out “roadmap” for her exit’. The Prime Minister has been given until 4pm today to lay out a roadmap to her resignation, although any successor needs to be able to garner the support of the Democratic Unionist Party if the threat of a general election is to be averted. (The Daily Telegraph)
  • 'Yen stronger against Dollar, volatility bets jump on tariff threats’. The Swiss Franc also has favour as a safe-haven currency, but without further negotiation posturing from Trump, a quick reversion may yet follow. (Reuters)

UK political tensions mount

According to media reports, Theresa May has been instructed to provide a roadmap for her departure by this afternoon. Having acknowledged UK participation in European elections in two weeks’ time and given the apparent failure of cross-party talks, opposition to the Prime Minister’s tenure is growing. A disorderly resignation from Mrs May would risk a breakup of the presiding parliamentary majority, kick-starting the process toward a general election. The ensuing political risk could destabilise the Pound.

Tariff threat hits Dollar

The Greenback has come under pressure over the escalation of tariff rhetoric between the US and China. The fall in the DXY Dollar Index has shifted to other safe-haven currencies like the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc. The timing of President Trump’s gambit, to force Chinese ascension to US terms, should not be ignored. Any backtracking by the Americans might result in a US Dollar relief rally before the end of the week.

GBP/USD

The Pound sold off against the US Dollar by almost a cent during yesterday’s session amid mounting political risk. Overnight data showing improving consumer sentiment has done little to provide fresh support for Sterling.

EUR/USD

The Euro is trading broadly sideways against the US Dollar, although the release of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) meeting minutes later today could provide some fresh direction. Clarity over where the bank intends to take monetary policy next will indicate whether an economic recovery for the Eurozone is materialising.

GBP/EUR

The Pound pushed out to five-week highs against the Euro ahead of the weekend break but has been giving back these gains in recent days. Mounting political risk in the UK is taking a toll, and the ECB’s monetary policy meeting minutes stand to provide further direction for the cross in the short-term.